Just Stallions

Most punters have a very selective memory. They tend to recall all the good wins but rarely discuss the many losses in between. Essentially if you are not recording your bets it’s because you don’t really want to face the fact that you are probably losing money.

Here are some facts you need to consider if you are serious about making a profit and winning long-term:

(1) Unrealistic expectations

Expecting to win in excess of 15% on turnover long term on a high volume of bets is totally unrealistic. Argue the point as much as you like (as I did when I was in my 20’s) but it is a fact. Of course there will be periods when you will have big wins and exceed these limits, but there will also be other periods where you will lose. Expecting to make more than 20% on turnover would mean that you were (a) being very selective and not turning over many bets; or (b) delusional; or (c) one of the most successful punters the world has ever seen.

Few punters realise that as professional punters we actually operate on 10% or less POT and that some of Australia’s biggest and most high profile professionals make less than 5% on (albeit high) turnover. The difference in profit percentages isn’t because one punter is twice as good as the other, but more likely it is because the two are experiencing differing levels of variance and possibly betting on many more (or many fewer) events. Either way, the turnover is very high and that is where the dollars are made. Essentially 10-15% profit on turnover is achievable and realistic with a disciplined and methodical approach to your punting.

So the reality is if you are making 10% POT and want to profit $25,000 per year, then you need to turn over a minimum of $250,000 per year. If you bet say five days per week then your will need to turn over approximately $1000 per day.

In following weeks we will discuss five other key factors in becoming a long-term winner:
(2) You will experience losing periods
(3) Probability will affect your bank
(4) Understanding market percentages
(5) Discipline is the key
(6) Betting with ratings

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.

Last week I discussed having realistic expectations in terms of profit and profit on turnover.

Today I want to emphasise the fact that you will have losing runs.

Probability has an effect on all things in daily life. Even the best judges should expect and will experience losing runs over any reasonable length of time.

To be a proficient punter it is essential that you can calculate the chance each runner has of winning and then betting only when you receive odds equal to or greater than the calculated chance. However unlike casino games where the odds can be calculated exactly, the odds or percentage chance of a horse winning is not exact or objective and that is why methodical data and ratings need to be kept and adjusted on a daily and weekly basis.

There are a number of factors involved in analysing the form and the subjective nature of this analysis means that opinions are often quite different. But the principle doesn’t ever change and that is if you don’t do markets how can you possibly know the winning chance of each horse? Furthermore, backing horses (even winners) at ‘unders’ will see you lose in the long term – that is a certainty.

A simple but pertinent example is a coin toss. Since the true odds of a head or tail is $2.00, this means it is certain that if you take less than $2.00 you will lose in the long term. If you take odds of exactly $2.00 you will break-even. If you are offered say $2.20 and you accept that as a bet (as you should) you will win 10% on turnover long term.

Although you are getting value by getting $2.20, you might still lose 10, 15 or even 20 times in a row. So despite the fact that you have bet sensibly and are getting value, you can still be losing in the short term and this is due to variance and probability. However over time if you consistently repeat the bet you will become a long-term winner.

Now, unfortunately the scenario most punters put themselves in is the opposite of the $2.20 example above. Instead they accept $2.00 or less and don’t understand how market percentages, probability and variance all work. The very best (and probably highly optimistic) result for this type of punter long term is that he breaks even. A much more likely scenario for this style of punter is that they are headed for the poorhouse. Why? Because they accept a price that is less than the true odds of that horse. And when they are in front, they double up their bets. When they are behind, they double up or possibly halve their bet. When they have a few beers they quadruple their bet. When their mate knows the owner or the jockey they have ten times their normal bet.

Short-term some will experience the occasional big win and many will experience big losses. But an undeniable fact is that long-term every single one of these punters will lose.

This series will continue in coming weeks with the following topics:
(3) Probability will affect your bank
(4) Understanding market percentages
(5) Discipline is the key
(6) Betting with ratings

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.