Just Stallions

Previous articles in this series covered the following topics:
(1) Unrealistic expectations
(2) You will experience losing periods
(3) Probability will affect your bank
(4) Understanding market percentages

Today I want to talk about what I consider to be the key to successful punting and that is discipline.

We have all witnessed an emotional and excited lad commence a long and sustained run around the betting auditorium, screaming whilst whipping his thigh with a form guide as the conveyance he is on charges to the line in a close finish. In all likelihood this punter has either failed to back a winner for some time, has had a bet that is way out of proportion with his bank or means, or has bet the remainder of his bank and suddenly realises that there is a chance of being able to afford a cab home. It’s always amusing to watch, but we all know these types rarely win and certainly never win over any reasonable length of time.

There are two reasons for this. Firstly these types actually expect to lose and would prefer to start the day with $200 and go home with either $1500 or nothing. Others turnover their $200 starting bank three or four times throughout the day, find themselves with $250 approaching the last and either bet their whole bank or at least all of the day’s profit.

If you are serious about being successful you have to approach the day knowing that you have either done the work yourself or have purchased ratings that enable you to make confident betting decisions. Once you have an idea of the relative chance each runner has (and this is essential) all you need to do then is shop well in the marketplace and only back those horses which are value.

It’s really that simple. There will be losing days but if you can adopt this approach and cease chasing one day’s losses you can become a winner.

This series will conclude next week with the following topic:
(6) Betting with ratings

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.

Most punters have a very selective memory. They tend to recall all the good wins but rarely discuss the many losses in between. Essentially if you are not recording your bets it’s because you don’t really want to face the fact that you are probably losing money.

Here are some facts you need to consider if you are serious about making a profit and winning long-term:

(1) Unrealistic expectations

Expecting to win in excess of 15% on turnover long term on a high volume of bets is totally unrealistic. Argue the point as much as you like (as I did when I was in my 20’s) but it is a fact. Of course there will be periods when you will have big wins and exceed these limits, but there will also be other periods where you will lose. Expecting to make more than 20% on turnover would mean that you were (a) being very selective and not turning over many bets; or (b) delusional; or (c) one of the most successful punters the world has ever seen.

Few punters realise that as professional punters we actually operate on 10% or less POT and that some of Australia’s biggest and most high profile professionals make less than 5% on (albeit high) turnover. The difference in profit percentages isn’t because one punter is twice as good as the other, but more likely it is because the two are experiencing differing levels of variance and possibly betting on many more (or many fewer) events. Either way, the turnover is very high and that is where the dollars are made. Essentially 10-15% profit on turnover is achievable and realistic with a disciplined and methodical approach to your punting.

So the reality is if you are making 10% POT and want to profit $25,000 per year, then you need to turn over a minimum of $250,000 per year. If you bet say five days per week then your will need to turn over approximately $1000 per day.

In following weeks we will discuss five other key factors in becoming a long-term winner:
(2) You will experience losing periods
(3) Probability will affect your bank
(4) Understanding market percentages
(5) Discipline is the key
(6) Betting with ratings

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.