Just Stallions

Australia’s love of horse racing is proven by the fact that the Golden Slipper is the richest race for two-year-old thoroughbreds in the world. The race is run at the Rosehill Gardens track every April, with $3.5 million dollars at stake.

It’s a fast and furious race which attracts entries from all the Aussie states and other world class breeders and trainers. Every year the race has all the elements required to make racing blood boil and betting fly. The drama of horses coming from the extreme outside, wins by a nose, record breaking runs and coming from last to win are just some of the exciting events defining this glorious race.

In Australia, horse racing is not just racing. The love for the sport runs through the blood as fast as the dash for cash that is the Golden Slipper. For Australian breeders it is considered to be easily the most influential race for future sires and broodmares.

Betting History

Horses must be yearlings when entered, with late entries accepted until the end of March which adds another layer to betting. Betting up to the start of the race is as exciting as the race itself. The Golden Slipper is one of Australia’s greatest racing events which also include the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate.

Golden Slipper winners have included stars of the turf such as Miss Finland, Dance Hero, Catbird, Danzero, Todman, Sky High, Storm Queen, Vain, Toy Show, Luskin Star, Manikato, Sir Dapper, Bounding Away, Canny Lad, Tierce, Merlene and Belle Du Jour. Many of these champions went on to become successful sires or broodmares.

The records show that colts and geldings have won 30 races with the remaining 22 races having been won by fillies.

The first Queensland horse to win the Golden Slipper was Calaway Girl in 2002. That victory only added to the Australian racing excitement that continues to grow with each race held. She was a late entry and needed a long sustained run to win.

Betting on the Golden Slipper race is an exciting time for Aussie punters. Bookmakers start betting on the Slipper many months before the actual race. The 2008 race day betting turnover was the highest it has been in 20 years and is expected to grow. It’s estimated that all in all over $30 million was bet, $18 million through the TAB and $12 million with bookmakers.

Slipper Day

The Golden Slipper race has become so popular in Australia that a two week carnival called the Golden Slipper Festival is held. The last race saw 28,000 racegoers watching the race and enjoying the festivities despite the heavy track. The Golden Slipper has helped generate renewed interest in racing in younger Aussies. The youthfulness and vibrancy that surrounds the race excites the betting action, with plenty of opportunities for punters to win.

The Golden Slipper is a race that Aussie punters should simply not miss when it comes to betting. Normally there are a number of chances in the race and it’s possible to back more than one horse in the race and still make a good profit.

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Racing Tips.

Previous articles in this series covered the following topics:
(1) Unrealistic expectations
(2) You will experience losing periods
(3) Probability will affect your bank
(4) Understanding market percentages

Today I want to talk about what I consider to be the key to successful punting and that is discipline.

We have all witnessed an emotional and excited lad commence a long and sustained run around the betting auditorium, screaming whilst whipping his thigh with a form guide as the conveyance he is on charges to the line in a close finish. In all likelihood this punter has either failed to back a winner for some time, has had a bet that is way out of proportion with his bank or means, or has bet the remainder of his bank and suddenly realises that there is a chance of being able to afford a cab home. It’s always amusing to watch, but we all know these types rarely win and certainly never win over any reasonable length of time.

There are two reasons for this. Firstly these types actually expect to lose and would prefer to start the day with $200 and go home with either $1500 or nothing. Others turnover their $200 starting bank three or four times throughout the day, find themselves with $250 approaching the last and either bet their whole bank or at least all of the day’s profit.

If you are serious about being successful you have to approach the day knowing that you have either done the work yourself or have purchased ratings that enable you to make confident betting decisions. Once you have an idea of the relative chance each runner has (and this is essential) all you need to do then is shop well in the marketplace and only back those horses which are value.

It’s really that simple. There will be losing days but if you can adopt this approach and cease chasing one day’s losses you can become a winner.

This series will conclude next week with the following topic:
(6) Betting with ratings

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.

DD: When was Two Way formed and what does your company do?

BR: Two Way was formed in 1991 and listed on the stock exchange in 2004. We develop advanced interactive media and gambling applications. These include Sky Racing Active, the interactive TV betting service now being offered by Tabcorp to Foxtel subscribers. We also operate the Way2Bet website, which provides a range of information (including odds comparisons) to help punters bet better. And we operate interactive TV games services on Foxtel, Austar and Sky New Zealand.

DD: Your Sky Channel and Tabcorp interactive betting service was launched in April of this year. How does it work and have you been pleased with the early interest from punters?

BR: Our service is available to Foxtel and Optus TV subscribers in Victoria and NSW. Subscribers launch the service by pressing the red button on their Foxtel remote. The service provides detailed information for all thoroughbred, harness and greyhound race meetings on which Tabcorp is conducting wagering each day. The information provided includes track conditions, detailed form guides, scratchings, approximate dividends, results, and final dividends. All of this information is updated automatically in real time.

In addition to accessing the above information, subscribers in Victoria can access their TAB wagering accounts, and place all types of bets (including exotics). At this stage, betting is not yet available in NSW.

We are extremely pleased with the early response from punters. Feedback on the service has been uniformly positive. The service is fast and responsive, and very easy and intuitive to use. All transactions are encrypted, safe and secure.

DD: How much potential do you see for this ‘remote-control betting’, considering people can already bet from home using the internet, mobile phones and landlines?

BR: For punters, the service offers a new level of convenience. If punters are watching the Sky Racing channel, they have the Foxtel remote control in their hand already, so why not use it to get relevant information and, if they wish, to place bets? So far, the number of bets and the level of turnover through the service has exceeded our expectations.

DD: What do you say to critics like Opposition communications spokesman Bruce Billson, who has cited problem gambling as the reason he wants your interactive gambling service banned?

BR: Our service includes all necessary and appropriate consumer safeguards. Betting through the service is available only to TAB account holders, who must satisfy identification requirements. Further, subscribers can use a PIN code to block access to the Sky Racing channel. This is in addition to the 4 digit PIN that is required to access a TAB account. The service also includes extensive responsible gambling messages on screen. Accordingly, our service offers more extensive consumer safeguards than current internet and telephone wagering services.

In any case, problem gambling in Australia is overwhelmingly associated with poker machines, not wagering services like ours. With wagering there is an element of skill, and it is possible to make money as a punter in the long run. That’s not the case with pokies.

DD: Right now your betting agreement is with Foxtel and Tabcorp. Do you envisage being able to set up similar agreements in the future with free-to-air stations for betting on sports telecasts?

BR: Our technology can easily be extended to handle sports betting. At the moment though, the free-to-air networks don’t have the necessary technical platform to be able to offer interactive services like ours. That may change in the future, with new equipment like the TiVo set-top box. In the near future though, only the pay TV operators can offer services like ours.

DD: How quickly do you think mobile phones will become a popular betting tool?

BR: They already are, of course! The obvious advantage of mobiles is that they can be used to place a bet anywhere. However, if a punter is at home, or anywhere else where a Foxtel service is available, our service is much faster and easier to use.

DD: Betting ‘in the run’ is hugely popular overseas, with punters able to bet during a horse race or sporting event. In Australia we’re currently restricted to phone betting only if we want to have a bet during a game. Do you think this will change in the short-term to allow punters to bet via the internet and/or their remote-control?

BR: It is crazy that you can make in-the run bets via the phone, but not via the internet or remote control. However I can’t see the restriction on in-the-run betting being lifted in the near future.

DD: Thanks for your time.

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.

Most punters have a very selective memory. They tend to recall all the good wins but rarely discuss the many losses in between. Essentially if you are not recording your bets it’s because you don’t really want to face the fact that you are probably losing money.

Here are some facts you need to consider if you are serious about making a profit and winning long-term:

(1) Unrealistic expectations

Expecting to win in excess of 15% on turnover long term on a high volume of bets is totally unrealistic. Argue the point as much as you like (as I did when I was in my 20’s) but it is a fact. Of course there will be periods when you will have big wins and exceed these limits, but there will also be other periods where you will lose. Expecting to make more than 20% on turnover would mean that you were (a) being very selective and not turning over many bets; or (b) delusional; or (c) one of the most successful punters the world has ever seen.

Few punters realise that as professional punters we actually operate on 10% or less POT and that some of Australia’s biggest and most high profile professionals make less than 5% on (albeit high) turnover. The difference in profit percentages isn’t because one punter is twice as good as the other, but more likely it is because the two are experiencing differing levels of variance and possibly betting on many more (or many fewer) events. Either way, the turnover is very high and that is where the dollars are made. Essentially 10-15% profit on turnover is achievable and realistic with a disciplined and methodical approach to your punting.

So the reality is if you are making 10% POT and want to profit $25,000 per year, then you need to turn over a minimum of $250,000 per year. If you bet say five days per week then your will need to turn over approximately $1000 per day.

In following weeks we will discuss five other key factors in becoming a long-term winner:
(2) You will experience losing periods
(3) Probability will affect your bank
(4) Understanding market percentages
(5) Discipline is the key
(6) Betting with ratings

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.

Last week I discussed having realistic expectations in terms of profit and profit on turnover.

Today I want to emphasise the fact that you will have losing runs.

Probability has an effect on all things in daily life. Even the best judges should expect and will experience losing runs over any reasonable length of time.

To be a proficient punter it is essential that you can calculate the chance each runner has of winning and then betting only when you receive odds equal to or greater than the calculated chance. However unlike casino games where the odds can be calculated exactly, the odds or percentage chance of a horse winning is not exact or objective and that is why methodical data and ratings need to be kept and adjusted on a daily and weekly basis.

There are a number of factors involved in analysing the form and the subjective nature of this analysis means that opinions are often quite different. But the principle doesn’t ever change and that is if you don’t do markets how can you possibly know the winning chance of each horse? Furthermore, backing horses (even winners) at ‘unders’ will see you lose in the long term – that is a certainty.

A simple but pertinent example is a coin toss. Since the true odds of a head or tail is $2.00, this means it is certain that if you take less than $2.00 you will lose in the long term. If you take odds of exactly $2.00 you will break-even. If you are offered say $2.20 and you accept that as a bet (as you should) you will win 10% on turnover long term.

Although you are getting value by getting $2.20, you might still lose 10, 15 or even 20 times in a row. So despite the fact that you have bet sensibly and are getting value, you can still be losing in the short term and this is due to variance and probability. However over time if you consistently repeat the bet you will become a long-term winner.

Now, unfortunately the scenario most punters put themselves in is the opposite of the $2.20 example above. Instead they accept $2.00 or less and don’t understand how market percentages, probability and variance all work. The very best (and probably highly optimistic) result for this type of punter long term is that he breaks even. A much more likely scenario for this style of punter is that they are headed for the poorhouse. Why? Because they accept a price that is less than the true odds of that horse. And when they are in front, they double up their bets. When they are behind, they double up or possibly halve their bet. When they have a few beers they quadruple their bet. When their mate knows the owner or the jockey they have ten times their normal bet.

Short-term some will experience the occasional big win and many will experience big losses. But an undeniable fact is that long-term every single one of these punters will lose.

This series will continue in coming weeks with the following topics:
(3) Probability will affect your bank
(4) Understanding market percentages
(5) Discipline is the key
(6) Betting with ratings

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David Duffield provides horse racing tips, ratings, lay betting and sports tips that will help you turn into a winning punter. To learn more please visit Horse Racing Tips.